Figure ①: A staff member explains the technical features of 5G in the 5G Experience Hall of China Mobile. Xinhua News Agency reporter Wu Gangshe
Figure 2: A shopping mall in Xiangyang City, Hubei Province invited the robot "Dalingxiaobao" as a shopping guide. A man and a woman were cute and cute, which attracted customers’ curiosity. People’s vision
Layout design: Zhang Fangman
Inherent innovative genes make "change" an eternal key word in the Internet world. Between people, between people and society, due to the deep involvement of the Internet, it has been profoundly rewritten, releasing more possibilities.
In 2017, how can traditional industries and the Internet spark new sparks? What kind of whimsy and brand-new experience are standing on the cusp of change? Who will write a new legend in the story of "Big Mac" and "Unicorn" on the Internet?
At the beginning of the new year, we once again launched the "2017 Internet Eight Conjectures". Although it is only a forecast, we are still very much looking forward to it: expecting more concepts and technologies to blossom, making daily life more intelligent, convenient and more relaxed and comfortable; Looking forward to more standardization and improvement, so that cyberspace is free and self-disciplined, interesting and orderly; I hope that I can participate in it, not only to pay for sharing, but also to activate my dreams and swim in the tide of the times together.
A better future will come true in these expectations … …
— — compiler
Conjecture 1
The 5G era is accelerating
Reporter Xu Qing
China’s 5G R&D has entered the stage of technical scheme verification and system verification, and there may be new breakthroughs in technology.
In 2016, the most exciting news in the communication field was that the minimalist code scheme promoted by Huawei and China was selected into the 5G standard, which made China enter the basic communication framework protocol field for the first time.
Also last year, the development of 5G was written into Made in China 2025, the Outline of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan and the Thirteenth Five-Year National Informatization Plan. By 2020, 5G will complete technology research and development testing and commercial deployment.
There are three main characteristics of 5G network. High speed is not only as simple as downloading 30 movies in one second, but also VR, AR and cloud technologies will be seamlessly connected with life. High reliability and low delay make unmanned and remote surgery no longer far away; A large number of terminal networks will form a broader and more open Internet of Things, making smart homes and smart cities possible.
In 2017, more 5G standards around vertical industries will be introduced to adapt to various devices accessed in the 5G era of the Internet of Everything; China’s 5G research and development will enter the stage of technical scheme verification and system verification, and there may be new breakthroughs in technology; More experimental and conceptual 5G products will be released continuously, so that people can get a sneak peek.
The arrival of the 5G era is embarrassing. Although there is still a certain distance from the official commercialization in 2020, with the introduction of 5G standards for home appliances, automobiles, medical care, games and other industries, with the continuous improvement and progress of 5G technology, a large number of 5G products came into being, and the attractive 5G era, like a jigsaw puzzle, gradually appeared before our eyes.
Conjecture 2
The media industry reshuffle is just around the corner.
Reporter Qian Yibin
The regulatory regulations and self-discipline norms for the media industry will continue to be refined to avoid "bad money driving out good money" in the industry.
After experiencing the boom of coexistence of prosperity and bubbles, the reshuffle of the media industry is imminent.
In the past year, the media industry no longer satisfied with small fights, showing great content appeal and potential value: explosive works repeatedly triggered the screen effect; Content creators who have received tens of millions of orders of magnitude financing are active in major Internet platforms. Under the favor of capital, the media industry has developed rapidly.
However, problems such as malicious brushing and serious data mixing have appeared frequently, and the moisture existing in the media industry has been criticized. Since September 1, 2016, the Interim Measures for the Administration of Internet Advertising has been implemented, and self-media advertisements also need to be marked in a prominent position according to regulations. Many self-media who originally relied on the so-called "soft text" marketing of advertisements were forced to "wean".
Since the "virtual fire" in the media industry is not small, a new round of reshuffle is imperative. Entertainment, life information and other areas with obvious homogenization and excessive crude content will be the first to eliminate a group of "followers" with low activity and insufficient user stickiness, and areas with differentiated needs such as maternal and child, medical care and fitness will become bright spots. What can really impress and attract fans and investors will be the high-quality content and the professionalism behind it. "The dedicated person is strong and the professional is excellent" is regarded as the industry creed.
In October 2016, Shanghai Media Alliance was formally established and included in the network management category of Shanghai Netcom Office. 91 media representatives signed a self-discipline convention. In 2017, the regulatory regulations and industry self-discipline norms for the media industry will be continuously refined to avoid the phenomenon of "bad money driving out good money" in the industry and effectively purify the network ecology.
Guess 3
The new media of government affairs is moving towards "community"
Reporter Dong Siyu
The government WeChat public account began to explore the new path of "government+social" and gradually presented the "community model" of government affairs.
Since its rise in 2013, the government’s WeChat public account has "triumphed" all the way, and its number has increased dramatically. According to the National Government Affairs New Media Report released by Tencent, the number of government affairs WeChat accounts in China has exceeded 100,000, and the average penetration rate of government affairs WeChat at all levels is 30%— 60%, showing a large-scale and multi-level development trend.
However, most new government media still publish information in one direction, lacking interactive function, and even "shut out" netizens’ messages and refuse dialogue and communication. This mode of "public relations communication" makes the government, the media and the public separate into "two sides of a wall". Even if it intends to guide public opinion, the effect is weak.
At present, a small number of government WeChat public accounts with a large number of fans have begun to establish WeChat groups, taking the lead in "community-oriented" government affairs. For example, the "opinion dialogue group" of the SASAC is presided over and maintained by the person in charge of the SASAC, and people from all walks of life are drawn into the group to communicate; CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection’s self-built WeChat group can realize instant zero-distance dialogue with the media.
Grassroots government WeChat communities have also been established. The wechat groups of "community policing" and "vigilance and discipline supervision" in Chengzhong Branch of Xining Public Security Bureau, Qinghai Province, 29 community policing wechat groups in urban police station of bohu county Public Security Bureau in Xinjiang, and the "wechat police-people contact group" in Hepeng police station of Shucheng County Public Security Bureau in Lu ‘an, Anhui Province have gradually become "treasure boxes" for collecting social conditions and public opinions and "service desks" for solving people’s troubles.
In view of different social strata, it is a main direction for the development of new government media in the new year to promote the benign interaction between the government and various social groups with the help of "community model", realize the rapid diffusion of government information and the accurate docking of various needs.
Guess 4
Internet charity enters the first year of supervision
Reporter Wu Shan
It is worth looking forward to whether the relevant departments can speed up the legislation and supervision of online charity and make substantial progress.
In the era of mobile internet, charity has opened a new door and is developing towards the trend of refinement, popularization and wide coverage. Various forms of online charity provide efficient and convenient fund-raising channels for people in need through strong social relations, which is a useful supplement to traditional charity.
However, last year’s internet charity farce was alarming. Commercial interests are rampant, and third-party fundraising information platforms are mixed; The pre-examination of the information of the recipients and the post-supervision procedures for the use of funds are not in place; The boundary between fundraising and personal help is blurred, and the scope of application of the law is not clear enough … … Internet charity, facing the crisis of trust caused by disorder and lack of transparency, can easily become the "way to make money" for a few lawless elements.
In September 2016, the charity law of the People’s Republic of China, the first basic and comprehensive law for the construction of China’s charity system, was officially implemented, stipulating that individuals and organizations that have not obtained the qualification for public fundraising may not publicly raise donations online. The Ministry of Civil Affairs subsequently announced the first batch of 13 Internet public fundraising information platforms. In the next step, the Ministry of Civil Affairs will start the platform selection and designation of subsequent batches in a timely manner according to the supply and demand situation of charitable fund-raising services and the response from all walks of life.
In 2017, Internet charity will enter the first year of supervision. Relevant departments will further build an information publishing platform for charitable organizations, conduct random inspections on the Internet public fundraising information platform, further mobilize social supervision, and establish a public complaint reporting mailbox. The state will adopt strong and hard indicators to ensure that charities operate in the sun, bid farewell to "one-time kindness" and achieve sustainable operation.
Guess 5
"Networking" debut to standardize Internet finance
Reporter Dong Siyu
The central bank took the lead in setting up a "network clearing platform for non-bank payment institutions", and third-party payment is expected to achieve unified supervision.
With the vigorous development of e-commerce, third-party payment has sprung up with the convenience of "one-click" operation, which has the momentum of "sweeping" traditional payment methods, but it has always lacked a unified "rules of the game". Most third-party payment institutions are directly connected to the bank interface, bypassing independent clearing institutions, and there are certain loopholes in this model.
In October 2016, when the relevant person in charge of the central bank answered a reporter’s question about the special risk rectification work of non-bank payment institutions, he said that the online payment and clearing platform of non-bank payment institutions would be established in accordance with the principle of "co-construction, co-ownership and sharing". The specific plan is being demonstrated and will be formally implemented in the future.
Because the platform is very similar to UnionPay in function, it is also commonly known as "network connection" in the industry. According to industry insiders, "Netlink" will only be used as a clearing platform, with one end connected to payment institutions with Internet payment licenses and the other end connected to the banking system. On the one hand, this model is conducive to seeing the flow of funds of third-party payment institutions and preventing illegal and criminal activities such as gambling, drug trafficking and money laundering; On the other hand, it can reduce the cost of expanding and maintaining banking channels and urge them to focus on optimizing users’ payment experience.
In 2017, can Internet finance start with the establishment of "networking" and gradually realize industry norms? How will the "network connection" platform ensure that all third-party payment institutions access according to regulations? How to make the clearing data as a public resource instead of being concentrated in the hands of market monopolists? These are all questions that need to be answered one by one after its real birth.
Guess 6
Artificial intelligence embedded in daily life
Reporter Xu Qing
Robots are no longer out of reach, and more conceptual products will enter daily life.
At the beginning of 2016, AlphaGo defeated Li Shishi, which surprised the whole world; At the beginning of 2017, the mysterious account Master defeated Ke Jie, Gu Li, Nie Weiping and other players in the online game, winning 60 games in a row. The topic of robots has once again been pushed to the forefront.
In the past year, there have been many major events in the robot industry. Google’s subsidiary launched robots with excellent motion balance ability, China University of Science and Technology released the first interactive robot "Goddess Jiajia" in China, and Internet giants such as Microsoft, Facebook and Baidu invested in the research and development of chat robot products. The 2016 World Robotics Congress was held in China, "Robot Industry Development Plan" (2016— 2020) and other important documents have been released one after another.
In 2017, the degree of robot intelligence will continue to improve, the application field will continue to expand, and more conceptual products will enter daily life. In restaurants and hotels, you can enjoy services such as robot consultation, baggage handling and food delivery. In the hospital, there are robot doctors to provide diagnosis and treatment; Don’t be surprised if one day you find that the courier brother and the takeaway brother have become drones.
More invisible robots, namely virtual AI (artificial intelligence), will also provide all-round services. In addition to providing real-time weather and traffic conditions and personalized news information, voice and text can be easily exchanged, and you can also chat and relieve boredom.
From the day the robot was born, the worries about man-machine relationship were lingering. In 2017, these worries will not disappear, but as humans and robots really start to interact closely, thinking about this issue will be more meaningful.
Guess 7
Knowledge payment welcomes the outbreak of industry
Reporter Wu Shan
The knowledge payment market may usher in a hundred flowers, and refinement and personalization will become the new direction of knowledge service, and the industry competition will become increasingly fierce.
2016 is a "year of knowledge realization", and a large number of knowledge paid products have been successful. The audio sharing platform "Himalayan FM" released by Shanghai Zendai Himalayan Network Technology Co., Ltd., the knowledge service App "Get" under Luo Ji Thinking, the knowledge sharing community "Know live" launched by Zhihu.com, and the paid question-and-answer products "On the Line" and "Answer" launched by Shell.com have deepened their respective fields and explored forms such as paid consultation, paid audio and paid live broadcast. Reward functions opened by information acquisition platforms such as WeChat WeChat official account, Today Headline and Sina Weibo have also laid a foundation for cultivating users’ concept of information payment.
The free era of knowledge sharing has gradually gone away, and the business model of knowledge payment is taking shape. More and more users are willing to pay for high-quality content. A survey released by Penguin Zhiku, a research institution under Tencent, at the end of last year showed that more than 50% of China netizens had paid for knowledge in different forms, and 26.4% of the paying users had rewarded them.
The development prospect of knowledge payment is optimistic, but there are hidden concerns behind it. For example, utilitarian knowledge content and chicken soup content are rampant, which makes it difficult to meet the multi-level needs of netizens; The content of subscription column is high or low, which reduces the interest of subscribers; Without the protection of rights and interests such as unsubscribe, users bear the risk of purchasing things that are not worth the money.
In 2017, it is expected that more enterprises will join the exploration in the field of knowledge payment, users’ awareness of knowledge payment will be further deepened, and the supervision of question-and-answer content and question-and-answer platform will be more infiltrated into the knowledge payment service.
Conjecture 8
"Live+"opens the second half of the industry
Reporter Qian Yibin
Live broadcast will be combined with more industries, and forms such as "live broadcast+sports" and "live broadcast+e-commerce" will continue to emerge.
End extensive growth, focus on standardized management, and innovate content forms. In 2017, webcasting is expected to start the "second half" in accelerating industry integration.
According to the 38th Statistical Report on the Development of Internet in China, as of June 2016, the number of live webcast users reached 325 million, accounting for 45.8% of the total netizens. In terms of content production, live chat shows and live games account for an important proportion, and the anchor attracts attention for the blog, and does not hesitate to play "edge ball" with pornographic and vulgar content. In the operation of the platform, the traffic dividend disappears, the loss of users intensifies, and the money-burning model is unsustainable. In 2016, the General Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television, the National Network Information Office and the Ministry of Culture successively issued relevant regulations and management measures. According to the forecast of iResearch, it is estimated that by the middle of 2017, less than one-fifth of the existing 200 platforms will remain.
In the future, the webcast after enclosure development will pay more attention to the deep cultivation of content and accelerate its extension to the vertical field. In order to meet the needs of the audience, webcasting will be combined with more industries, and forms such as "live broadcast+sports", "live broadcast+e-commerce" and "live broadcast+education" will emerge and gradually mature. At the same time, with the help of UAV and VR (Virtual Reality) technology, people will gain unprecedented visual experience. Bird’s-eye view of mountains and rivers and shuttle buildings are no longer fantasy, but immersive and within reach will become a reality.
In the new year, we can’t simply define webcasting as an entertainment industry, but it can become a social form, and there is a chance to move towards a new stage of industrialization with the help of regulatory norms, technological upgrading, content innovation and other factors.
